Photo by Colin Young Wolff/Riot Games

Regional play in VCT is ticking towards its climax, with some regions wrapping up their Stage 2 group stages and some already a few days into the Play-Ins. The race to qualify for Champions Shanghai is heating up, with clear favorites separating themselves from the rest while the rest of the region looks to sneak in.

Related: Everything you need to know for VCT China’s Play-ins and Playoffs

In this series that will be ongoing until Shanghai’s 16-team field is set, Ult Orb will sort teams based on their current Championship Points total into six different categories to take the temperature of each team, starting with VCT China.

The six categories are:

• Already In – Team has already mathematically qualified for Champions.
• Should Make It – Team is leading in points or close to the top; very simple criteria to make it to Champions.
• Solid Chance – Just outside the upper echelon in points; could qualify with the right turn of events.
• Odds Are Low – Low point count; team needs a miracle to qualify through points.
• Top 2 or Bust – Challengers teams and teams that are mathematically out or have an unrealistic outlook to qualify
• Already Out – Teams that have already been eliminated from the Play-In.

Already In

Edward Gaming (20 pts, Qualified)

The 2024 world champions earned 10 points from a 4-1 group stage, which led to a first-place finish. The hot streak continued at Masters London, where the team took home five points from a third-place finish. EDG punched its Shanghai tickets just three matches into Stage 2’s group stage. Teams not named EDG looking to qualify for Shanghai on points will need the regional powerhouse to make a run through the lower bracket of the Play-Ins all the way to the Grand Final of the playoffs.

Should Make it

Xi Lai Gaming (18 pts)

Throughout the year, Xi Lai Gaming has been a consistent competitor for the top spot in China, trailing behind EDG by just two points. After qualifying for both Masters events in 2026, XLG is looking to qualify for its third and most important event of the year. To guarantee an appearance in Shanghai, XLG needs to confirm a top-four finish, or have one of EDG or All Gamers reach the grand finals. XLG will also qualify if AG finishes outside of the top four.

All Gamers (13 pts)

Following a run through the upper bracket of China Kickoff and a 5th-6th finish in Santiago, All Gamers has had a quietly strong year. The squad finished Stage 1 just one series win away from reaching London, but solidified its spot as the third-place team in China’s points standings. To use these points to secure a qualification to Champions, AG needs either both XLG and EDG to finish in the top two, or one of them to reach the Grand Finals, all while Dragon Ranger Gaming does not secure a third-place finish.

Solid Chance

Dragon Ranger Gaming (8 pts)

After a short visit to London, which ended with a 0-2 record in the Swiss Stage, Dragon Ranger Gaming is hoping to make an appearance at Champions, this time with its full roster. During a winless Champions Paris campaign last year, the team relied on Demon1 as a substitute for star player vo0kashu. To secure its trip to Shanghai, DRG needs any variation of EDG, XLG, and AG in first and second, as well as a top four finish of its own. Alternatively, a third-place finish while either EDG or XLG reach the top two will also lock in qualification.

Bilibili Gaming (7 pts)

With seven points, Bilibili Gaming is on a journey to qualify for its first event of 2026. After losing two qualifying games in Kickoff and missing the Stage 1 playoffs, BLG has bounced back. It finished the group stage with a 4-1 record, topping Group Omega to skip the Play-Ins. While BLG is in form to go on a run to the Grand Finals, it can also qualify for Champions if two of the three point leaders finish in the top two and BLG finishes third. Alternatively, a fourth-place finish and none of TYLOO, DRG, or NOVA finishing third will secure qualification for BLG.

TYLOO (7 pts)

With the same point total and Stage 2 record, TYLOO is BLG’s near-parallel in Group Alpha. TYLOO took the second seed in the group, only losing to a NOVA team that is undefeated in Stage 2 before losing to XLG in the seeding match. TYLOO looks to qualify for Champions through similar methods to BLG. Two of EDG, XLG, and AG finish top two, as well as a third-place finish or fourth-place finish, while BLG, DRG, and Nova do not take third.

Nova Esports (6 pts)

Boasting an 11-match win streak through Stage 1, Evolution Series Act 2, and Stage 2, Nova Esports look unstoppable as the top seed of the stage going into the playoffs. While the team is primed to extend its win streak and reach the Grand Final of Stage 2, Nova can also qualify to Champions on points. If Nova finishes third and two of EDG, XLG, and AG take the top two spots, and DRG is not fourth. Nova could also qualify with a fourth-place finish as long as two of the top three teams occupy the top two and if TYLOO, BLG, and DRG are not in third.

Odds Are Low

FunPlus Phoenix, JDG Esports (4 pts)

At a meager four points, both FPX and JDG will need a strong run through the Play-Ins and the playoffs. A miracle scenario is needed to qualify on points, as both teams need two of the three top teams in points to finish in the top two, as well as a third-place finish if NOVA, TYLOO, and DRG all miss the top four, or a top-four finish if NOVA, TYLOO, BLG, DRG, TEC, and their four-point counterpart do not finish in third. A lot needs to go right, but it’s still possible.

Titan Esports Club (3 pts)

With only three points, Titan Esports Club is the lowest-ranked team that can still qualify on points. For TEC to make its first international appearance a visit to Champions, it needs a lot to happen. TEC needs a third-place finish while two of EDG, XLG, or AG make the top two. Additionally, TEC needs NOVA, TYLOO, BLG, and DRG to finish outside of the top four.

Top 2 or Bust

Trace Esports, Wolves Esports (2 pts)

Trace and Wolves, two teams who have seen the international stage in the past two years, only have two points each. They are both mathematically eliminated from qualifying to Shanghai through points. As such, if either of these teams wants a shot at getting anywhere near the Champions trophy, they will have to make a deep run to the Grand Finals of the Playoffs.

Already Out

A Team, KeepBest Gaming (VCNT Teams)

After going 0-2 in the Play-ins, China’s VCNT teams did not have enough against even the lowest-rated VCT teams in the region. While both teams had their moments throughout the year in China’s second tier, the likes of Trace, TEC, FPX, and Wolves showed they were a cut above.